Change or ...?

By Number Six

Sunday, February 24, 2008 at 10:21 AM

This topic's always guaranteed to get some folk's dander up, yeahbaby. Blogger Sara Robinson reminds us that if certain things don't get fixed and soon, we could, according to some cute math....well, let's just say...the name Robespierre come to mind?

More after the break....

Yes, the big, fat, butt-ugly "R" word: Revolt.

Sara is wondering, as I've been since the days of Richard Mutha-effn Nixon (sorry, we hippies are doomed to pronounce it that way...), if things got worse instead of better, would revolt come along?

She cites a paper done back in 62 by John C Davies, who came up with a "J" curve to illustrate what can make a revolt take place. The J curve, in this case, shows that when Expectations versus Results take a sharp departure from the other (hence, the letter J shape of the curve), then, the fecal matter washes the main rotors.

Way back in 1962, Caltech sociologist James C. Davies published an article in the American Sociological Review that summarized the conditions that determine how and when modern political revolutions occur. Intriguingly, Davies cited another scholar, Crane Brinton, who laid out seven "tentative uniformities" that he argued were the common precursors that set the stage for the Puritan, American, French, and Russian revolutions. As I read Davies' argument, it struck me that the same seven stars Brinton named are now precisely lined up at midheaven over America in 2008. Taken together, it's a convergence that creates the perfect social, economic, and political conditions for the biggest revolution since the shot heard 'round the world.

And IMNSHO, the French Revolt was the bloodiest of them all, however, the Khmer Rouge runs a good runnerup. The problem with the French one? It was soon followed by M Robespierre, M Just and the all-time party favorite...The Reign Of Terror. The ROT was Hellblazer done with French subtitles.

But, back to the math: What are these "seven seals" that bespeak the opening to The Great Book of Doom?

1) Soaring, then crashing economies.

2) Class warfare

3) No use for intellectuals (I'm screwed)

4) Incompetent rulers and rules (Goes without saying...!)

5) "Gutless wonders of the ruling class" (quoting)

6) Fiscal irresponsibility (We can do a whole miniseries on that..)

7) Inept/Inconsistent use of force

She goes on, of course, to detail all seven of these, to show they exist today, with our current leaders, our current aristocracy, and so on, citing examples, yes.

I've said, more than once, even without citing Davies: Since Bushiewhooshie slid into 1776 Makebelieve Av, our nations looks more and more like France did just prior to the fall of the Bastille, and the storming of the Tileworks. Really? Really:

1) The aristocracy and the churches were begged by reformers to pay taxes, to be fair. This idea was laughed at. A lot. No, no mention of "capital gains" or "death tax", but probably, some ideas went like that, yes.

2) The king was spending France out of funds on one stupid war after another. If that one doesn't sound familiar......

3) The basic economy of France sank like the Bismarck. The middle class were taxed, metaphorically, to death. The poor took it like the poor always do.

4) And then, slowly, over time, the Eight Element came to pass, the one Davies hints at......"I AM MAD AS HELL AND I AIN'T TAKIN THIS NO MORE!"

The dear lady is right, she is not begging for this, nor am I. We're just reminding some: It happened once, twice ain't a bother.

And yes, I'm very glad someone else has noticed this other than me.