Polls, Polls, Polls
By Lee Russ
Friday, April 21, 2006 at 05:49 PM
More info in the never ending attempt to predict the "then" based on the "now." "Then," being of course November, 2006 and a later "then" being November, 2008.
Approve Disapprove (Don't know)
Most recent (18-19 Apr 06) 33% 57 10
Highest (14-15 Nov 01) 88% 7 5
Lowest (18-19 Apr 06) 33% 57 10
First-Term Average 61% 29
Approve Disapprove (DK)
18-19 Apr 06 33% 57 10
Democrats 11% 81 8
Republicans 66% 23 11
Independents 27% 62 12
That's approaching some dangerous territory: a hair less than two thirds of your own party approve of you, barely 10% of the opposition party approves of you, and slightly more than a quarter of independents approves of you. You is not doing well. And needless to say, the overall 33% approval is the lowest ever in the Fox poll.
What does this mean for the next election? National Journal's latest Political Insiders poll offers further clues. This is a poll of 133 insiders--65 Democrats and 68 Republicans--chosen because of their supposed "insider" knowledge of politics, campaigns, and elections.
Q 1:What would be the political impact if Donald Rumsfeld resigned?
Among Repubs, 32% thought it would help Repubs, 28% thought it would help Dems.
Among Dems, 37% thought it would help Repubs, 26% thought it would help Dems.
Q 2: On a scale of zero (no chance) to 10 (virtual certainty), how likely are the Democrats to take over the House in this year's elections?
Repubs gave chances an average of 4.8 in April, versus 3.5 in Februaury.
Dems gave chances an average of 5.6 in April, versus 5.0 in February.
In Feb, only 5% of Repubs thought there was a "high" chance, which rose to 15% in April.
In Feb, 21% of Dems thought there was a "high" chance, which rose to 31% in April.
Q 3: On a scale of zero (no chance) to 10 (virtual certainty), how likely are the Democrats to take over the Senate in this year's elections?
Repubs gave chances an average of 3.5 in April, versus 2.9 in Februaury.
Dems gave chances an average of 4.6 in April, versus 4.3 in February.
In Feb, only 2% of Repubs thought there was a "high" chance, which rose to 4% in April.
In Feb, 13% of Dems thought there was a "high" chance, which rose only to 14% in April.
If you believe these "insiders," chances are starting to look pretty good for A democratic takeover of the House, but still look slim for the Senate.
If you want to feel good momentarily, imagine the Democrats in the House with subpoena power.
Want to feel even better? Imagine Bush, Cheney, Rumsfeld, and Rove imagining the Democrats in the House with Subpoena power. Time to take my meager savings and invest in paper shredders and computer erasure systems.